Iraq Study What?

So a week and two rounds of Sunday talk shows have passed, and the Iraq Study Group (ISG) report has been pummeled worse than Fallujah. While everyone seems to agree with its grim assessment of the situation in Iraq, when it comes to the ISG's recommendations, it appears that everyone has found something to hate.

This has been an early Christmas present for the White Houseas it has shifted media focus from the administration's short comings to those of the ISG. Conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer has virtually crowed about this being a new opportunity for the president to announce a "bold new strategy". Krauthammer never quite explains what this bold new strategy might be in what appears to be a hope based analysis on his part.

The administration, for its part, has chosen to delay announcing its new strategy until the new Secretary of Defense has been sworn in and gets a chance to travel to Iraq. But supposedly, a decision has been made by the decider in chief. So what's the point of the delay?

I think that the answer is that there is no bold new strategy, just a number of changes in policy more moderate than those proposed by the ISG. It appears that the administration will opt for the Pentagon's middle-of-the-road "Go Long" strategy while applying additional pressure on the Iraqi government to reform. It is doubtful we will see the kind of unfettered diplomacy called for by the ISG or any timetables as called for by the Democrats.

This delay is actually politically shrewd on the administration's part. The ISG report showed is that there is no "bold new strategy" waiting in the wings and that the audience is filled with hecklers. Indeed, to strain the metaphor, the hecklers now seem to be supplied with rotten tomatoes in that the November elections and ISG report have given bi-partisan credibility to criticism of the administration. I can't imagine any strategy that wouldn't ignite a firestorm of criticism once announced.

In another way, time might temporarily be on Bush's side. At this time of year, public attention will shift from Iraq to the holidays, giving some domestic breathing room until the new year. Though it is not a long time, it may be that something will give in Iraqi politics, such as the Shiites ousting Al-Sadr's party from the governing coalition. While such a move wouldn't solve the problem, it would give credibility to a moderate policy change.

I say policy change because the strategy would be the same, i.e., to support the Iraqi government until it can stand on its own. I expect the administration will stick with this strategy while adjusting the tactics it uses. I would expect to see redployments of US combat forces in Iraq, increases in the number of advisors, increases in funding for the Iraqi Army, and general increases in the US Army and Marine Corps. In other words, the changes already under way, along with increased talk about 'benchmarks', will be the 'new' way forward. It's success will depend on what the Iraqis do more than on what the US does and we are left mainly to hope that Iraqi politics will move in the right direction.