Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Factoid: US Recovery Good in Comparison to Other Nations

Tim Taylor at the Conversable Economist  pulled this nugget from the 2014 Economic Report of the President. The chart below shows the recovery of nations involved in the 2007-2008 banking crisis. The 100 index line represents the pre-crisis peak in Real GDP/working age population and shows that only the US and Germany have exceeded it.


Now there are a couple things going on here. The working age population of the US has been growing at a slower rate as the Baby Boomers have begun retiring. At the same time, productivity has increased about 10% since 2009, as shown in the Federal Reserve graph below:


If you look at the graph during the 2008-2009 recession (shaded area), you can see that productivity leveled out in 2008 and then ticked up sharply. This probably reflect companies trying to hang on to employees before bowing to the inevitable and cutting back on employees and/or shuttering less efficient plants.  This making do with less improves output per hour (i.e., productivity). This is part of the reason that GDP/working age population has increased while unemployment has remained relatively high.


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