Thursday, April 17, 2014

Ukraine: What a Difference a Day Makes

Yesterday, things appeared to be deteriorating in Eastern Ukraine. Today, The US, Ukraine, EU and Russia announced a deal to deescalate the crisis. BBC reports that:
Following the Geneva talks, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsia, US Secretary of State John Kerry and EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said there was agreement that all illegal military formations in Ukraine must be dissolved, and that everyone occupying buildings must be disarmed and leave them.
They added that there would be an amnesty for all anti-government protesters under the agreement, and talk of "inclusivity" - possibly a suggestion that Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine might be granted more autonomy.
These steps will be overseen by monitors from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

Of course, this deal did not include the people in Eastern Ukraine that are taking over government buildings and attacking Ukrainian security forces. So there is a tacit reliance on Russia's leadership role with the protesters. Hopefully, Russia's participation in this agreement will convince the protesters to declare victory and stand down, even if they are not taking direct orders from Moscow. At the very least, they may not be counting on intervention if they provoke a little violence.

I would note that the agreement calls for the OSCE to monitor the situation. This is the same international organization that Russian troops blocked from entering Crimea but now it is coming in handy for them. Of course, that is what international organization are for, to facilitate cooperation and conflict resolution when states want to cooperate and resolve conflicts (not to force them to do so).

No comments: