For my students that have had a belly-full of Selectorate Theory this past term, the argument will be a familiar one. In short, Ukraine's best hope is to reform its political system into one that requires a large coalition of essential supporters for leaders to stay in power. Such a system will provide leaders with the incentive to provide good public policy, as opposed to private benefits to essential supporters, and to try hard at it. Hard as in, as if their political survival depended on it because it would.
In Ukraine's case, establishing a government that requires a broad base of support will assure people in Eastern Ukraine that the government in Kiev will meet their needs. BDM and Smith argue that this is they way to deal with the demands of the Russian speaking population and to quell their desire for secession. As they put it:
Apart from all of these needed reforms, of course, there is the question of what to do about the Russian bear in the woods. Here, a few principles should govern the Ukrainian government’s response. Self-determination is a fundamental right advanced by coordination freedoms and competitive elections. The way to win the support of blocs of citizens is to provide them with effective public policies that advance their well-being. When governments fail to do that, then citizens naturally look for alternatives, either by selecting a new government or, in extremis, seeking to secede. Secession is the manifestation of failed government; precluding it by fiat is not the solution. Rather, providing incentives not to secede is the goal, attainable by structuring government so that leaders need the support of a broad base of society to stay in power and, consequently, must reward many people through effective policy.
Democratic societies, in which leaders cater to as many people as possible, are virtually immune to coups, revolution, and civil war. The French political system withstood citizens taking to the barricades in the late 1960s, as did the U.S. political system during the Vietnam War. India, likewise, has withstood regular protests of government policies over the years because, in the end, most citizens recognize that they can redress grievances through normal political channels if enough of them express dissatisfaction with their government’s policies. To win over the hearts and minds of pro-Russian Ukrainians, the government in Kiev needs to make Ukrainian citizenship more valuable than defecting to Russia. But so far, the government’s responses to the unrest in eastern Ukraine have failed to do so. Kiev ought to balance resource allocations fairly, assure the freedoms and rule of law, and then gamble on a self-determination referendum later. Only then will the new government be able to convince many eastern Ukrainians that it is better to be Ukrainian than Russian.
During the Cold War, Western leaders seized any opportunity to score points against Russia. But today is not the Cold War, and a decade of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq has tarnished the allure of military intervention. It is almost unthinkable today that the United States or NATO would intervene in Ukraine to thwart Russian ambitions. But given the ineffectiveness so far of sanctions, rather than confronting Russia, Western politicians today should focus on promoting a free and prosperous society in Ukraine. In the long run, such a transformation will prove to be a stalwart opponent to Russia’s expansion; democracies are hard to push around. The stars are aligned in Ukraine’s favor. Making real change toward democracy is the best weapon in the West’s arsenal.
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